Start investing again

The volatility caused by Trump in global markets is unprecedented in recent memory. His attack on Iran may have caused a fear bottom in stock markets in March 2026. Since then, stock prices have rallied by about 50% or more. So this seems to be the time to start investing in Indian equity cautiously. try to invest in off radar high growth small caps. IT seems to be a contrarian buy. turnaround companies are also a good buy.

 ai bubble

be very cautious..be fearful when others are greedy( and vice versa) now is the time for that.. very difficult to find fairly valued company leave aside undervalued.. builder.ai scam a sign of things to come.. bitcoin fall by about 50%...maybe ai bubble about to burst.. be overweight on cash.

 tussle between fii s and dii s

There is a huge struggle, a tug of War between FIIs and DII since October 2024 as predicted in my previous blog in September 2024 on Indian stock markets. The stock indici have been on a constant fall since October because of huge and consistent FII selling but DII have been buying. In the absence of this buying from D II there would have been in a blood bath and indicii would have been  at least down by 30%  or more. When the FIIs stop selling or who so ever is the winner in this tug of war will determine which way Indian stock indicii  would go. If the consistent selling of FIIs dominates over buying of DIIs then stock indicii will go lower and vice versa. Though important all this is noise and what matters is long term growth of indian economy and that seems to be unstoppable.

It looks like 2020 or 2007 or 2000 all over again

 the key to making money in stock markets is by investing that's by having the long term view... investing with the time horizon of more than 3 years and an investor has to be fearful when  others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.  Now there is greed all around as can be seen by over subscription of IPOs by 100 ot times, psu stocks are trading at triple digit p/e s. In fact as is the norm in Bull market in p/e ...e is euphoria ..mid caps become mad caps...there is consistent inflow of a liquidity from domestic investors. the same was there also in 2020 and it didn't prevent stock market crash of 50% though covid was the reason at that time. same will definitely happen again in near future and the reason maybe something new but it will happen. so be very very cautious 

 be very very cautious

be fearful when others are greedy and vice versa...every body is bullish on indian equity markets...the indian stock market to gdp ratio is aroiund 1.5...stocks are trading at p/e of 50 or 80 plus..it is time to start booking your profits

 lot of moise

ukarine war, commodity price upward spiral etc etc...key to making money in this noise is to identify compamies which will double their profits in next few years, invest in them and forget the rest.

what if the ukaraine war ends?

if so then the world equity markets may hit the roof. otherwise commodity prices will do. so invest accordingly.

be very cautious the euphoria in indian equity markets and globally too is remnicient of the sub prime bubble of 2008 and the subsequent crash... the rush of ipos reminds one of very much hyped ipo of reliance power ipo and similar hyped ipos like nyka etc...now. so be aware and book someof your profits

pendulam swing of equity markets from desperate fear of mar 2020 to greed of 2021 the equity markets true to nature have swung like a pendulam. with positive gdp growth cycle, credit cycle , corporate profit cycle and hence resulting positive investor psychology cycle we are in for a bull market

Be v v cautious

The ruling govt has done exactly what I had predicted... Over promise.. Under deliver..With the result that the economy is not growing fast enough.. Except indici stocks..Others share prices have fallen or remained unchanged..making common investor wonder what is happening... Clearly showing stock markets are in bubble territory and are being manipulated..So remember be v fearful when others are greedy and vice versa.....Be v cautious and keep equity 10% to 15 % of your total portfolio now

Be v cautious

All the signs of a bull market peak are there in the market now..Indices are not going anywhere..Shady company share prices have touched new highs..There is a huge rush of IPO at v premium prices read overpriced...So exercise high caution..As has been rightly said those who forget history are condemned to repeat it..

be very cautious

with stocks at all time high -Avenue Supermarts Ltd trading at a p/e of 100!!!! one should be very cautious. The indicii are also trading at a high of 21... all the veterans agree that the maximum upside to the market is about 30 %. I think the downside risk is same or much more than that. The warning signs are all there...global rise in stock indexes irrespective of the economic fundamentals...rising interest rates in US... To be sure this boom like always will be followed by a bust...so this is the time to be very cautious with a high inclination towards sell...

be cautious

The comparative high interest rates are choking any meaningful high growth in indian economy.The coming of new RBI gov is a welcome step along with the expected lowering of bank interest rates that will definitely give a fillip to the indian economic growth rate. Most of the cos are now trading at fairely valued or overvalued levels. So it makes sense to be cautious & keep a bias towards sell side except in case where the growth of the co is very strong & the co has many years of growth & expansion in front of it.The microfinance sector is one such sector. GST is expected to be long term positive for the economy. So keep your fingers crossed & keep on looking for high growth cos. for investing in.

bye bye r3

R3 created a mess in indian economy...indian economy can't grow with astronomically high interest rates especially when some countries like Japan have negative interest rates..i know comparing India with Japan is comparing apples with oranges..but the fact is that india with its huge underpriviliged poor population can't afford low growth. India has to grow at double digits to lift this huge population to a better economic level. and for that we need low interest rates. r3 also did huge damage by making banks calculate their NPA now in real time when all the core sectors steel, cement...are in bad shape as drivers of economy like real estate, infra etc were in bad shape or recovering after the misrule of previous govt.. it is like telling a sick marathon runner to run the marathon when he is unwell. after the economy had recovered would have been a better time for this excercise.the result is crores of red spread over P&L statements of psu banks.. hence departure of r3 is good news. the new rbi gov we hope is more pragmatic. for the investor keep an eye on new listings & identify & invest in genuine high growth promising stories on decline.

overpromise underdeliver!!!

this is what the modi govt has done since coming to power. after promising the moon the ground delivery has been far less than what could have been. for instance can u believe that a business where the demand far far outstrips supply is running on losses...yes it is true in unbeleievable India...indian railways is the business. the result of all this high talk & low deliverance is that indices are at the same level where they were before modi came to power. so only thing & the right thing an investor can do is to identify cos. that are growing inspite of all this under performance & stay invested in them. also keep about 50% of portfolio in debt & invest in growing modestly priced cos. ( very difficult to find)as & when u come across such co. or wait for a big fall & buy then for a sure shot more than 50% return as the market recovers.

Stay your course!!! the slowdown in chinese economy has brought huge upheavel in commodity markets & hence in the global economy. from everybody being bullish a few months back to almost eveyone now bearish is swift change. what should you now do as an investor? stay your course. if you have bought shares of well run cos. at reasonable prices, don't worry. remember that the bearish argument always appears to be more intelligent!!!

One of the only game in town with one of the only asset classes... with the collapse of shanghai equity market, greek tragedy in europe, russian brazil....commodity collapse linked problems which is a big plus for india...hence india seems to be one of the Only game in town. the gold collapse along with real estate stagnancy makes equity to be the only asset class left to chase in one of the only game in town. buy your favourite cos. for reasonable valuations & hold tight for your ride on the gravy train!!!!

Modi ji moving in right direction

in one year of governance modi ji & his team have taken the right steps in the backdrop of an opportunistic united opposition who don't even want the practical & much needed reforms like GST ,Land bill to become a law & hence benefit us.and the complete misgovernance of congress of many decades. they know that the success of this govt. will see a repeat of gujarat at centre too. be company specific with respect to your equity investment. if the co you have invested in is doing well, the valuations are reasonable stay put. the overvalued mediocre performance ones should be subject to sell bias.

evolution is not a substitute for revolution!!!!

the massive revolutionery mandate modi govt got in the national election should have been seen rightly as a mandate for drastic immediate change....a revolution.instead modi govt. seems to be going for evolutionery change with the idea in mind that they have 5 years t deliver...what is the hurry!! but leave aside 5 years....even 9 months is a long time...the drubbing from aap is a warning to modi t deliver fast or ... if he delivers than indian economy is at the sweet spot of falling commodity prices & interest rates. we live in interesting times.. keep a bias towards sell in equities...

Modi effect- If Modi manges to deliver- which going by his track record, he will- then India is in for a huge consistent growth in future. And if the economy grows & advance so will the stock indicia. And hence the co. share prices...So as always buy quality high growth stocks & sit tight t enjoy the ride t wealth creation