Wednesday, August 10, 2016

be cautious


The comparative high interest rates are choking any meaningful high growth in indian economy.The coming of new RBI gov is a welcome step along with the expected lowering of bank interest rates that will definitely give a fillip to the indian economic growth rate. Most of the cos are now trading at fairely valued or overvalued levels. So it makes sense to be cautious & keep a bias towards sell side except in case where the growth of the co is very strong & the co has many years of growth & expansion in front of it.The microfinance sector is one such sector. GST is expected to be long term positive for the economy. So keep your fingers crossed & keep on looking for high growth cos. for investing in.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

bye bye r3


R3 created a mess in indian economy...indian economy can't grow with astronomically high interest rates especially when some countries like Japan have negative interest rates..i know comparing India with Japan is comparing apples with oranges..but the fact is that india with its huge underpriviliged poor population can't afford low growth. India has to grow at double digits to lift this huge population to a better economic level. and for that we need low interest rates. r3 also did huge damage by making banks calculate their NPA now in real time when all the core sectors steel, cement...are in bad shape as drivers of economy like real estate, infra etc were in bad shape or recovering after the misrule of previous govt.. it is like telling a sick marathon runner to run the marathon when he is unwell. after the economy had recovered would have been a better time for this excercise.the result is crores of red spread over P&L statements of psu banks.. hence departure of r3 is good news. the new rbi gov we hope is more pragmatic. for the investor keep an eye on new listings & identify & invest in genuine high growth promising stories on decline.

Monday, May 23, 2016

overpromise underdeliver!!!


this is what the modi govt has done since coming to power. after promising the moon the ground delivery has been far less than what could have been. for instance can u believe that a business where the demand far far outstrips supply is running on losses...yes it is true in unbeleievable India...indian railways is the business. the result of all this high talk & low deliverance is that indices are at the same level where they were before modi came to power. so only thing & the right thing an investor can do is to identify cos. that are growing inspite of all this under performance & stay invested in them. also keep about 50% of portfolio in debt & invest in growing modestly priced cos. ( very difficult to find)as & when u come across such co. or wait for a big fall & buy then for a sure shot more than 50% return as the market recovers.