Tuesday, October 5, 2010

The time for steady selling has arrived in Indian equity markets.

If you want to see a hit movie in a theatre, naturally there will be a huge crowd of people interested in watching this movie. But then you are given a chance to enter the theatre to watch the movie by entering either when there is a huge crowd at the exit as all the people are leaving the theatre or when there is a huge crowd at the entrance as all the people try to enter the theatre- which one will you choose? Common sense would dictate that one choose the former- enter the theatre when there is a stampede at the exit and leave the theatre when there is a crowd jostling & pushing each other to enter the theatre. Similarly in stock markets, one should buy in a bear market ( read when all the people are rushing through the exit of the theatre- selling their shares at ridiculously low prices ) & sell in bull markets ( read when all the people are& pushing each other to enter the theatre – buying shares at ever increasing very high prices).

Similarly, investors should start selling small percentage of their equity investments as the bull market is well & truly on in India. And as in the analogy above, the hit movie is the Indian economy’s steady growth & the crowd of FII’s rushing in to invest in Indian cos. is the crowd of people at the entrance of the theatre. If caution is not exercised by the rational investors then as might happen in a stampede, they might get financially hurt or worse be finacially crushed!