Saturday, May 8, 2010

greek tragedy & chinese real estate bubble!

Tremors in Greece ( on going global movie starring Greece as a troubled, high debt country, supported by Portugual , Spain & rest of european union) &
Bubble in Chinese real estate! – forth coming global premier.

Is it curtains for Indian economy because of on going global greek tragedty?Does the economic woe of Greece affect the decision to purchase a car or a house by an Indian? No it does not. What it, at its worst will impact is the sentiment of the people around the globe in a negative manner for a short time & in India for even a shorter period. Why so? This is elaborated below.
If anecdotes are to are to believed, the Chinese real estate market is in a bubble stage. If true- it seems to be so- then there will be an inevitable collapse of this bubble. That will be bad for the global economy. And for India also. But for India, to a limited extent only. Why so ? Because Indian economy is domestic demand driven. The collapse of real estate market bubble in China will lead to a falling demand for commodities across the globe & hence a fall in their prices. This will benefit Indian economy and Indian cos. also –except commodity producing cos.. This is what happened after the recession of 2008 in U.S.A.. there was all around collapse of commodity prices – crude oil fell from$ 145/ barrel to $45/ barrel levels & so on. After a decline in growth, Indian economy is back to its relatively high growth.
There is another silver lining- U.S. economy is officially out of recession & returning to positive growth.

Joke of the day!

Govt. should take up contracts for making explosives etc. used by the terrorists. this way, none of them will work when they are used- just like most govt. products & services!