tussle between fii s and dii s

There is a huge struggle, a tug of War between FIIs and DII since October 2024 as predicted in my previous blog in September 2024 on Indian stock markets. The stock indici have been on a constant fall since October because of huge and consistent FII selling but DII have been buying. In the absence of this buying from D II there would have been in a blood bath and indicii would have been  at least down by 30%  or more. When the FIIs stop selling or who so ever is the winner in this tug of war will determine which way Indian stock indicii  would go. If the consistent selling of FIIs dominates over buying of DIIs then stock indicii will go lower and vice versa. Though important all this is noise and what matters is long term growth of indian economy and that seems to be unstoppable.

It looks like 2020 or 2007 or 2000 all over again

 the key to making money in stock markets is by investing that's by having the long term view... investing with the time horizon of more than 3 years and an investor has to be fearful when  others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.  Now there is greed all around as can be seen by over subscription of IPOs by 100 ot times, psu stocks are trading at triple digit p/e s. In fact as is the norm in Bull market in p/e ...e is euphoria ..mid caps become mad caps...there is consistent inflow of a liquidity from domestic investors. the same was there also in 2020 and it didn't prevent stock market crash of 50% though covid was the reason at that time. same will definitely happen again in near future and the reason maybe something new but it will happen. so be very very cautious 

 be very very cautious

be fearful when others are greedy and vice versa...every body is bullish on indian equity markets...the indian stock market to gdp ratio is aroiund 1.5...stocks are trading at p/e of 50 or 80 plus..it is time to start booking your profits

 lot of moise

ukarine war, commodity price upward spiral etc etc...key to making money in this noise is to identify compamies which will double their profits in next few years, invest in them and forget the rest.

what if the ukaraine war ends?

if so then the world equity markets may hit the roof. otherwise commodity prices will do. so invest accordingly.

be very cautious the euphoria in indian equity markets and globally too is remnicient of the sub prime bubble of 2008 and the subsequent crash... the rush of ipos reminds one of very much hyped ipo of reliance power ipo and similar hyped ipos like nyka etc...now. so be aware and book someof your profits

pendulam swing of equity markets from desperate fear of mar 2020 to greed of 2021 the equity markets true to nature have swung like a pendulam. with positive gdp growth cycle, credit cycle , corporate profit cycle and hence resulting positive investor psychology cycle we are in for a bull market